Just 314 votes separate nation's closest house race

Vietnamese American candidate now ahead by 314 votes as ballot counting continues in Orange County’s 45th District.

Democrat Derek Tran has increased his lead over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in California’s 45th District, now holding a 314-vote advantage as of Tuesday night, with thousands of ballots still being counted. This development intensifies the anticipation surrounding one of the nation’s most closely watched congressional races.

“People who have been watching closely and feel like the race is on a knife’s edge are anxious to see this one get called,” Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc., a firm that analyzes voting trends, told the LA Times.

Initially, Steel held a comfortable lead of more than five percentage points, but her advantage eroded as mail-in and drop-box ballots were processed. Under California law, ballots postmarked by Election Day can be counted if they arrive within seven days, a rule that often delays results in tight races.

A High-Stakes Contest in a Diverse District

The 45th District, encompassing parts of Orange County, including Little Saigon, Garden Grove, and Westminster, has become a battleground due to its growing Asian American electorate. Both candidates made direct appeals to this community, which makes up a plurality of district voters.

Volunteers Mobilize in Final Days of Counting

Approximately 13,000 ballots remain to be counted, according to Mitchell. Many of these ballots include mail-ins submitted just before or on Election Day, along with votes that require verification, such as mismatched or missing signatures. Voters with flagged ballots have until Dec. 1 to correct these issues through a process known as “curing.”

Progressive groups, including Chispa OC and Unite Here Local 11, have launched intensive efforts to contact voters whose ballots need curing. Volunteers have been knocking on doors and calling voters to ensure their ballots are corrected and counted. “One of the most challenging things is actually finding a voter,” said Bulmaro “Boomer” Vicente, political director for Chispa OC. “We’re just going out to neighborhoods and really trying to find the voter on the list.”

This grassroots mobilization highlights the stakes of the race, which was among the most expensive in the nation. Former President Bill Clinton campaigned for Tran, underscoring Democratic hopes of flipping a district that backed President Biden in 2020, despite Steel’s win two years ago.

What’s Next?

With Republicans already securing the 218 seats needed to control the House, the outcome in the 45th District will determine whether the GOP’s majority remains razor-thin or slightly more comfortable. California does not mandate automatic recounts, but campaigns can request one if they are willing to cover the costs.

Two years ago, another tight California House race was decided by just 564 votes and wasn’t finalized until early December. Election officials are urging patience as the process plays out.

“We know this race is going to be determined by a couple thousand votes,” Vicente said. For now, all eyes remain on Orange County as the nation’s closest House race edges toward a conclusion.