Democrat Reps. Dave Min and Mike Levin painted bleak pictures of “price shocks,” “empty shelves,” and “recessions.” So far, those warnings haven’t materialized.
Orange County’s Democratic members of Congress issued dire warnings about how President Donald Trump’s tariff and trade policy would impact the economy, including “coming price shocks,” “empty shelves,” “recession,” and a “trade disaster.”
As of now, those predictions have not materialized.
According to new data released at the end of July, the U.S. economy grew at a 3% annualized rate in the second quarter of the year, strongly beating expectations and revealing an economy that has so far weathered a flurry of tariffs that took effect earlier this year.
Some Orange County Democrats had painted an alarming picture that President Trump’s trade policy would lead to economic disaster.
“In response to the coming price shocks, we just ordered a ton of paper towels, pasta, and other non-perishable goods,” Democratic Rep. Dave Min (CA-45) posted on X in May. “This is the second time in my life we’ve stockpiled in anticipation of empty shelves, and both times happened under Trump.” In another post, Min warned that, “Trump’s tariff whiplash is hurtling our economy towards a recession.”
“Trump’s reckless tariffs are tanking confidence in the global economy,” Democratic Rep. Mike Levin (CA-49) similarly warned in April. “America can’t afford a Trump trade disaster.”
But the latest economic data shows an economy that has remained remarkably resilient despite the barrage of tariffs. Consumers continued to spend and inflation slowed compared to the first quarter of the year.
Some economists have pointed out that there are potential clouds on the horizon in the latest data, including a decline in investment and demand as businesses and consumers navigate broader uncertainty around future tariff levels and trade policy. Others, however, point out that a spate of recent trade deals with major U.S. trading partners like the European Union, South Korea, and Japan, which call for lowering tariffs in exchange for increased access to those countries’ markets and sizable financial investments in the U.S., will provide more long-term certainty and stability.
“The anti-Trump story has been that we’re going to have a recession or a depression because of the tariffs, which are going to jack up prices and cause consumers to run for the exits,” Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council director, said on CNBC. “In fact, every single thing about this GDP release has shown strength.”
Neither Min nor Levin had posted about the stronger-than-expected GDP data as of press time.
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